Healthy scepticism and opinion polls
As we enter the last lap in General Election 2024, and ever more polling data is thrust in our faces, Somerset Confidential® asks what is it, what does it mean and can we trust it?
Dear readers
Today’s edition of Somerset Confidential® is for our paying subscribers. Much of what we do we see as a public service. But we still have bills to pay. And as we strive to do more, we have more bills to pay. You take the point?
We think there is a lot to do. If you’d like to help us do it you can do so here:
So as well as our free service we offer a paid subscription which costs £30 a year. That’s 58p a week, less than the price of Twix chocolate bar!
For that you get:
4 extra articles a month
The chance to have your say, to comment argue and debate our articles
full access to our back catalogue (it is getting bigger every week)
and the satisfaction of supporting one of Somerset’s most innovative journalism projects.
We like to think of it like this. Support us – and you are supporting a better governed Somerset. You can join and support us here….
Thank you
Andrew Lee - editor
Healthy scepticism and opinion polls
As the General Election lumbers up towards the final stretch, how are the parties doing? These days, in the weeks leading up to a General Election we are inundated with opinion polls telling us who will win overall. More interestingly, they will also have a bash at telling us who will win in each seat.
Using statistical analysis of varying degrees of sophistication, the poll numbers are often the focus of intense media attention. The parties of course do their own polling and don’t tend to publish the results. If you are lagging behind your long time rival you don’t necessarily want everyone to know that.
The problem with opinion polls is that in the midst of the media feeding frenzy that is the essence of a General Election campaign, they are often over interpreted or misinterpreted. Opinion polls are only a snapshot. They are most useful for establishing a direction of travel, less so for predicting the actual result, whether of the election overall or for a specific seat.
For instance right now we can see that most polls show Labour’s lead is holding up at around 20% and has done so across the campaign to date. Looking longer term since 2020, Labour has steadily risen and the Conservatives steadily fallen. To such a degree that the predicted electoral fortunes of the two parties are almost the exact opposite of where they were 5 years ago.
That direction of travel is likely to be validated when the votes are counted and a new government formed on 5 July.
However when opinion polling has been used to predict actual election results, it has been known to get it spectacularly wrong. Take the 1992 election which pitted the incumbent Conservative Prime Minister, John Major leading an unpopular government against Labour’s Neil Kinnock.
Right up until the exit poll Labour were predicted to be the largest party with several polls also giving them an outright majority. The result then was a shock, at least for those who put their faith in the polls, with the Conservatives emerging with a Parliamentary majority of 21.
Similarly in 2015 when David Cameron sought re-election to replace the coalition government and faced Ed Milliband for Labour. The polls, right up to election night, predicted a tight race with no more than one percentage point between the parties.